Calvera Insights

Welcome to our 2026 annual letter. Having a positive and deep Calvera investor relationship is our primary goal. The annual Calvera annual letters are an important part of this. 2025 was a lot like 2024, but we’ll outline the continued challenges, new surprises, and our thoughts for 2026 in this letter.

(NMHC) National Multi recap on multifamily real estate: capital is available, but confidence remains cautious. Insights on distress, rent growth, debt markets, and where economists see opportunity…

An exploration of whether value-add or opportunistic real estate deals carry more risk, and why today’s multifamily dynamics are challenging the traditional hierarchy.

2026 multifamily predictions: stable rent growth, flat apartment values, and a healthier, less volatile investment environment.

I used to think that politics only mattered for real estate developers. They’re the ones who need to convince cities to change zoning, grant exceptions, or provide subsidies. A run-of-the-mill apartment owner, I thought, didn’t need to worry much about politics. Boy, was I wrong.

In real estate today, exhaustion and optimism coexist. Some owners are ready to quit; others see their best buying window in years.

I always find property acquisitions fun, even if they’re stressful. There’s the thrill of finding a deal you believe in. Then there’s the psychology behind bidding. Once the deal is awarded, there’s both the joy of victory and the sobering thought of, “What did I get myself into?”

What’s more important: buying the right property or buying into the right sector (e.g., multifamily, industrial, hospitality, etc.)? Everybody and their brother, aunt, and dog becoming real estate syndicators in 2020-21.The property itself didn’t seem to matter. All you had to do was ride the wave, at least that’s what some operators pitched.

There’s a wide chasm between the way institutional investors and individual investors think. One isn’t necessarily better than the other. Both ways produce successful investors, but they rarely align. Ideally, you underwrite like an institutional investor but operate with the instinct and efficiency of an individual investor. These traits are hard to combine, but sometimes a deal arises that makes the combination easier. We’re under contract on one such deal now.

San Francisco is the most interesting place to consider investing in today. It’s awakening from a long slumber, thanks to an aggressive push from the new mayor and his friends. There’s a palpable energy that “the City” is coming back. Office leasing is picking up, new investment is coming in, and there’s a real focus on crime and cleanliness.